'Mad Marathon' to United Nations 

The Herald (Harare) 
OPINION
August 21, 2005 
Posted to the web August 22, 2005 

By Munyaradzi Huni
Harare 
THE tussle for Zimbabwe has reached the home stretch. Two spirited sprinters are jostling for the first position in the Africa category. The other pack is far behind, but such marathons are full of surprises and one of the two leading sprinters could actually be overtaken right at the wire. In the meantime, Zimbabwe watches it all and laughs at the mad marathon. 
It's really a mad marathon because, although the two leading sprinters are sweating it out to snatch Zimbabwe from each other, Zimbabwe is not where the finishing line is. The finishing line is the lucrative permanent seat in the United Nations Security Council that is up for grabs next month in New York. 
Of course, all the African sprinters know that Africa could actually have two permanent seats, but then this is a mad marathon and everyone wants to be sure and to be sure means coming first. 
And so who are the two leading African sprinters? There is the cunning fox from Southern Africa called South Africa and West Africa's sneaky Nigeria. The other pack comprises Angola, Algeria and Egypt, and it would be suicidal for South Africa and Nigeria to dismiss these three countries as mere pretenders in the bid to secure the permanent seat in the Security Council. 
But developments over the last few months clearly show that the real mad marathon is between South Africa and Nigeria as they tussle for Zimbabwe, which they see as key in the battle for the Security Council seat. 
South Africa is dangling the about US$500 million loan to Zimbabwe. Never mind the real source of the funds and its real purpose. Zimbabwe is supposed to be so desperate for the loan and reports say the country was supposed to be so desperate that it could even be given political conditions and still accept the funds. The mad marathon baffles the mind. 
But then Zimbabwe is not a mental hospital, and so it welcomed the loan, but made it clear that it would not accept any political conditions, such as entering into talks with the MDC. And so the talks -the talks about the loan and not talks with the MDC - dragged on for weeks. 
Big Brother Nigeria saw the stalemate, smiled at what it thought was a God-given opportunity and jumped in to play its cards in true Nigerian style. 
Without consulting Sadc as prescribed under the African Union and without a cry for help from President Mugabe, Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, under the camouflage of his position as the AU chairman, appointed former Mozambican leader Cde Joaquim Chissano as mediator to the proposed talks between Zanu-PF and the MDC. 
As many expected, President Mugabe reiterated for the umpteenth time that Zanu-PF would not enter into any talks with the MDC outside Parliament. The President said he would rather talk to the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, the principal of the opposition party. 
Still, President Obasanjo hoped against hope that the soft-spoken Cde Chissano would persuade President Mugabe to change his mind. 
Maybe President Obasanjo's optimism came from the fact that Cde Chissano was the best man at President Mugabe's wedding, but then that failure to distinguish the difference between personal issues and national issues is likely to leave the Nigerian leader with a lot of egg on his face. 
After meeting President Mugabe on the sidelines of the Sadc Silver Jubilee Summit in Botswana last week, Cde Chissano announced that he would not be mediating any Zanu-PF/MDC dialogue because the Zimbabwean leader had convinced him that there was no need for external intervention. 
The former Mozambican leader even went to the extent of saying the Nigerian leader had not consulted Sadc when he appointed him as a mediator. 
Now, this presents a serious problem for President Obasanjo because if Cde Chissano's remarks reflect the mood in Southern Africa, then he has lost a key sub-region in the bid to get the permanent seat in the Security Council. 
And to make matters worse, countries like Algeria and Egypt in North Africa are closing the gap in the mad marathon as was evidenced by developments from the extraordinary AU summit that was recently held in Ethiopia. 
After realising that the two leading sprinters had entered into a compromise deal with the G4, comprising India, Japan, Germany and Brazil, the two North African countries rallied behind the majority of the AU that stuck to the continent's original plan regarding UN reforms. 
Africa's original plan was to push for the expansion of the Security Council to 26 seats, with six new permanent veto-wielding seats, of which two would be reserved for Africa and five new non-permanent seats, two of which would be occupied by African countries. 
The compromise deal with the G4 meant that Africa would push for the Security Council to be expanded to 25 with six new permanent seats without veto power, one each for Brazil, Germany, India and Japan and two for Africa - and four non-permanent seats. 
Africa flatly rejected this compromise deal in Ethiopia and in the process humiliated Presidents Obasanjo and Mbeki. 
A lecturer in political science at the University of Zimbabwe, Rtd Wing Commander Cletus Mafongoya, even thinks that due to the compromise deal, Africa will not speak with one voice when the UN reforms are debated next month. 
The Nigerian leader is secluded and this deranges whether psychologically or mentally the authority that he should have. Nigeria has no option but to go with what the rest of the AU is saying otherwise the rift between the groups in Africa will not be healed by the time the UN Summit is held. This obviously won't be good for Africa, he said. 
He said it should be known that it is the AU as a continental body that will present its representatives for the permanent seats to the UN. 
The AU is saying it wants authority to say these are our representatives and any African country hoping to get into the Security Council should be trusted by the continental body, he said. 
Other analysts said President Mbeki wasn't soiled so much by the compromise deal as he took a back seat while his Nigerian counterpart tried to sell the deal to the rest of Africa. 
While President Obasanjo was busy ignoring the AU protocol that the continental body cannot intervene in a sub-region without consulting the regional body, President Mbeki decided to take the marathon for the Security Council seat into Nigeria's backyard. 
He went to Cote d'Ivoire and played the mediator's role in that country's conflict and fortunately for President Mbeki, he didn't step on anyone's toe, was actually welcome in that region and, in fact, managed to score some points. 
Naturally, South Africa's enemies were not amused and they ganged up to prevent President Mbeki from winning the race. And the easiest way of doing this is to play up the Zimbabwean issue. 
The South African leader is now being accused of pampering a rogue state; he is being accused of protecting an African despot; and he is being attacked for his so-called quiet diplomacy in dealing with this failed state called Zimbabwe. 
President Mbeki is under serious pressure to get tough with Zimbabwe and there is actually an uproar from his enemies that he wants to give Harare a loan. 
It suddenly didn't matter that South Africa had actually offered the loan to Zimbabwe and even if they didn't have enough details about the source of the funds, the enemies went to town and made it appear as if Zimbabwe was asking for a gift and not a loan. 
It also didn't matter that Zimbabwe currently imports US$1 billion worth of goods against US$600 million worth of exports to South Africa. Clearly, the balance of trade is in South Africa's favour and as such news that South Africa wants to give Zimbabwe about US$500 million should not come as a surprise to those familiar with economics. 
On the other hand, South Africa has seen how key Zimbabwe is in Southern Africa and instead of succumbing to the pressure to turn against President Mugabe, it has come out in the open supporting Zimbabwe, especially the land reform programme. 
In fact, South Africa's Deputy President, Ms Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, thinks her country has lessons to learn from Zimbabwe's land reform programme. With the realities on the ground in terms of land ownership in South Africa, it looks like it's just a matter of time before Ms Mlambo-Ngcuka is proved right. 
Of course, some analysts are of the thinking that South Africa is playing it nice with Zimbabwe just because of what is now known as the Chinese factor, but this is international politics - it's about knowing what to do, when to do it and who to do it with. 
By the way, the Chinese factor is the fear that was brought about by President Mugabe's recent visit to China where several deals that are set to increase economic co-operation between the two countries and obviously assist in reviving Zimbabwe's economy were signed. 
While President Mbeki seems to be managing well this marathon, things are not looking so good for President Obasanjo. Africa, and Southern Africa in particular, will not forget the role that was played by the Nigerian leader in the expulsion of Zimbabwe from the Commonwealth. 
And Southern Africa will not forget how President Obasanjo ignored the AU protocol and without consulting anyone and with no invitation, tried to play Big Brother in Zimbabwe. 
It's just a few weeks before the UN Summit in New York and the mad marathon is gathering momentum. 
Until September 14 to 16 2005, the panting, the galloping, the sweating and the sneaking continues.