Syria Slows Sanctions Momentum at U.N.

By Sam F. Ghattas
December 10, 2005
The Washington Post
Original Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/10/AR2005121000789.html

BEIRUT, Lebanon -- Syria, reeling under international pressure just a few weeks ago for its alleged role in a Lebanese political assassination, has largely managed to blunt momentum toward sanctions. In the short term, at least, the United States and Syria seem to have settled into a wary standoff.
Points marked up in the Syrian column recently include a witness recanting damaging testimony he gave to the U.N. investigation into Rafik Hariri's assassination, the decision by probe's chief investigator to quit rather than extend his tenure and a modicum of cooperation by Damascus as demanded by the United Nations, the United States and France.
And the United States, preoccupied with Iraq, does not seem to be eager to push Damascus too hard, fearing the destabilization of yet another Middle Eastern country.
But those pressing the case against the Syrians say Damascus has only temporarily blunted the investigation.
Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Moallem on Saturday repeated Syria's innocence in Hariri's death and its promise of cooperation, saying any further international measures against Damascus would be unjust and unjustified.
They're not off the hook yet, but the pressure is not as great as it was before, said the British writer Patrick Seale, an expert on Syria. Syria also has benefited from Saudi mediation to ease the pressure on Damascus and the imbroglio over CIA rendition of terror suspects to special prisons in Central and Eastern Europe.
When the chief U.N. investigator Detlev Mehlis submits his findings to U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan on Sunday, there is speculation that he may name as suspects senior Syrian officers _ the former intelligence chief in Lebanon and his deputy _ seek their arrest and demand more cooperation from President Bashar Assad's regime.
His report will be taken up this week by the U.N. Security Council, which also will decide whether to concede Lebanon's request to extend the commission's mandate for six more months beyond its Dec. 15 extension.
On Oct. 31, the Security Council warned Syria to cooperate with the probe or face further action _ diplomatic parlance for sanctions. The threat was issued after Mehlis' first report implicated Syrian and allied Lebanese intelligence services in the murder.
Underscoring U.S. resolve, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice led the American delegation to the gathering of foreign ministers who took up the issue at the council then.
Mehlis, reportedly citing personal and other reasons related to his work as a prosecutor in Germany, has said he would step down after submitting his second report this week. But the Syrians and their allies appear to believe the decision stems from Mehlis' failure to find direct evidence in the investigation.
Syria's attempts to discredit the probe have managed to cast a shadow on the investigation's credibility _ at least in the region.
But if Mehlis comes up with something hard (on evidence), of course, the spotlight will shift back, Seale told The Associated Press from Paris.
Since the Security Council warning, Assad has promised Syria's cooperation, but that will stop _ in his own words _ if Syrian interests are harmed. Also working in Syria's favor is its ally, Russia, a veto-wielding member of the Security Council, which opposes sanctions.
Certainly there is no question of sanctions for the moment, unless this (Mehlis) committee will come up with fresh witnesses and more convincing evidence, Seale said.
Instead, there is speculation of an undeclared deal by which senior Syrian officials would be spared the responsibility in the Beirut truck bombing that killed Hariri and 20 others, leaving lower-level officers as scapegoats.
Something is in the works, which says that responsibility be limited to a certain level of Syrian officials and lower-ranking ones, the Lebanese political analyst Sarkis Naoum said.
The names of top Syrian officials _ Assad's brother and his brother-in-law _ were removed from the previous report in what was seen then as a U.N. attempt to soften the findings.
The Syrians are suspects. Do you want to confront the whole regime, or do you want to contain the damage? Naoum said on a popular talk show on LBC TV. The columnist in the leading An-Nahar daily said the Americans were not seeking regime change in Syria for now.
But that does not mean the United States will ease the pressure on Damascus or return to the status quo.
The Mehlis investigation is believed to have uncovered strong evidence implicating the Syrians _ evidence that goes beyond that recanted by Husam Taher Husam, the Syrian intelligence operative. Mehlis, in comments Friday, said he was satisfied with the evidence he had and that the recanted statements will have no effect on the probe.
Syria's opponents warn that Damascus is running out of options. The international noose is tightening, said the outspoken anti-Syrian politician Walid Jumblatt, and the killers will fall one after the other.
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Beirut-based correspondent Sam F. Ghattas has covered Lebanese and Mideast affairs since 1982.