Exit strategy for Thailand's UN bid 

By Kavi Chongkittavorn
December 26, 2005
The Nation (Thailand)
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As soon as it can, Thailand should find a way out of the doldrums it has got itself into over its botched bid for the top job at the UN. Otherwise Thailand and its people will face the utmost humiliation by the end of next year. 
In the past two years, opinions in the international arena have not been very supportive of the campaign for Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai to become UN secretary-general. 
That should not surprise anyone. And Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra alone must be held responsible for the mess, as it was he who made the decision to launch the unpopular bid, without consulting with anyone. 
He must get us free of this tangle before it is too late. 
That Thaksin needs an exit strategy was made abundantly clear at the recent Asean foreign-ministerial meeting in Kuala Lumpur, where Surakiart briefed Asean foreign ministers on the progress on his campaign to succeed Kofi Annan at the end of 2006. 
In his briefing on Dec 8, he said he had held 110 bilateral talks in New York and also went to West and Central Asia including attending conferences in various parts of the world. 
Surakiart also spoke French when he met with President Jacques Chirac. He reiterated that they would back an Asean candidate. He used affirmative words such as “supportive” and “positive” to describe the attitudes of officials he had met in so many countries. 
And yet there has been very little tangible international commitment to his campaign. 
Surakiart went on to express hope that Asean would do more to help him in his quest and urged Asean ambassadors in Washington, Paris, London, Beijing and Moscow to actively campaign for him. The next six months, he reiterated, will be crucial. 
He even said that there was a need to counter misinformation and fabrications about him that were being spread. 
At the moment two other Asian contenders are Sri Lankan diplomat Jayantha Dhanapala and South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-moon. Like Surakiart, they seem confident that they will be successful in the quest to become secretary-general. 
Ban could be the dark horse to keep an eye on, because countries in East Asia, including China, Japan and even North Korea, would support him since he is from the same region. Washington also backs him. 
One senior US official, who asked not to be named, talked of Ban and his country this way: “South Korea is a big and small country and strong and weak at the same time. This makes him an ideal candidate.” 
At the ministerial retreat, very few Asean foreign ministers spoke their minds about Surakiart. 
Indonesian Foreign Minister Hasan Wirayuda said that his country had tried to discourage South Korea from joining the race because Asean was moving to support the Thai candidate. Cambodian Foreign Minister Hor Namhong expressed concern that the US position was still not clear, even though Surakiart recently met US President George W Bush. 
According to diplomats who were present at the Bush-Thaksin meeting, when the prime minister met the president in the White House, Bush attempted to impress upon Thaksin that he was not in a position to support Surakiart’s candidacy, but Thaksin went away thinking that Bush was basically positive about Thailand’s bid. 
Singaporean Foreign Minister George Yeo gave strong support. But he also suggested that Asean should consider the Thai candidate on the understanding that the South Korean candidate claims he would be backed by the United States. 
He also spoke of how the issue of who eventually becomes the next secretary-general needs to be considered in the context of the current problems affecting Sino-Japanese relations and how South Korea comes into play regarding that spat. 
How could all of this affect Asean’s own candidate? 
Malaysia did not say much other than that Ban’s late-off-the-ground candidacy would not jeopardise the Thai candidate’s chances. 
Lest we forget, Malaysia was the first country to back Thailand’s bid. It was a strategic decision, taken in the full knowledge that its northern neighbour would have a tough time selling its candidate, but Malaysia did not want the issue to become a problem in its relations with Thailand. 
Although the grouping endorsed Surakiart’s candidacy in New York at the end of September 2004 after strong pressure from Bangkok, no Asean countries besides Thailand have come forward to meaningfully support Surakiart. 
The Kuala Lumpur meeting only produced a simple statement that Asean strongly supports his bid. 
Beyond this declaration, quite a few Asean countries remain deep down unhappy with the Thai move, which in effect pre-empted the possibility of other Asean candidates. 
At the next year’s UN General Assembly in September, this UN campaign will reach its finale. If there is no acceptable candidate, the UN Security Council would go for an alternative candidate. 
It would not be surprising if when push comes to shove , a candidate from Asean could eventually emerge. In this sense, Singapore is the country to watch. 
When Thaksin decided in February 2004 to name Surakiart as his candidate, he did it selfishly to satisfy his own ego. He wanted to have another Supachai-type figure in his Thai Rak Thai Party who could mirror his ethos. 
He had not idea that his decision would become so complicated, self-destructive or costly. 
The bid, he thought, would raise the country’s international profile. At that time, he did not have a clue that the country he led would face so much condemnation from abroad and from UN agencies regarding violations of human rights and muzzling of media. 
This was the outcome of his own political arrogrance and self-delusion. 
When two outstanding retired diplomats came out to jointly and vigorously speak out against Thailand’s bid, it gave the clearest indication so far that the Thai candidacy was indeed a lost cause. 
Both Asda Jayanama and Kasit Piromya know every nook and cranny in Washington and at UN headquarters in New York. Their voices should be heeded. Only true patriotric Thais would speak frankly. 
Thaksin started this problem. Now he should have the guts to end it.