Iran's Nuclear Decision Starts Shock Wave
U.S., Europeans to Call for an Emergency Session, Demand Action by Security Council

By Carla Anne Robbins and David Crawford 
January 11, 2006
Wall Street Journal
Original Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113688268805942532.html
WASHINGTON – After breaking the seals on its once-secret nuclear facility at Natanz, Iran has now set the stage for a long-threatened showdown with Europe and the U.S.
The move brings Tehran an important step closer to producing nuclear fuel either for power plants or, as some U.S. and European officials fear, nuclear weapons. It also poses a critical test of Europe's decision to try negotiation with Iran first, rather than confrontation, to wean the country of its nuclear ambitions -- and a test of the Bush administration's wary support of that effort.
European and American officials said yesterday that they expect their governments in the next few days to call for an emergency session of the International Atomic Energy Agency board, and then demand a referral of Iran's case to the United Nations Security Council.
Germany's new foreign minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier, warned that Tehran had crossed a line, which the Iranians knew could not remain without consequences. White House spokesman Scott McClellan was more explicit about what those consequences should be: If the regime in Iran continues on the current course ... there is no other choice but to refer the matter to the Security Council.
Fearful of reopening the Iraq war rift, Europe, led by Britain, France and Germany, championed negotiations with Iran and pledged to support economic and other sanctions against Tehran if the process failed. With no good military alternatives, and many U.S. troops in Iraq, President Bush agreed to go along.
Russia and China, which have economic interests in Iran, have until now resisted a U.N. referral. Over the weekend in Vienna, diplomats from all five recognized nuclear powers -- the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China -- delivered separate but coordinated démarches to Iran, demanding that it abandon efforts to produce nuclear fuel. The language was carefully negotiated, but for the first time it had Russia and China expressing concern that Iran had acquired information that could be useful for developing nuclear weapons.
Western diplomats said they hoped that Iran's defiance will anger Moscow and Beijing enough for them to drop their objections to preliminary Security Council action. Russia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement yesterday saying that the country was deeply disappointed by Iran's declared decision and noted that Tehran had decided to move even after a Russian envoy insistently advised them not to take this step.
Western officials said that if the matter is referred to the Security Council, the first step likely would be to express dismay, rather than immediately imposing sanctions.
Iran invited U.N. inspectors, who monitor the country's nuclear program, to view the removal of the seals at the Natanz facility, which Tehran had voluntarily shuttered as part of its negotiations with Europe. And it informed the IAEA that it planned to begin small-scale research and development, including introducing uranium feedstock into centrifuges for enrichment.
Yesterday, inspectors also oversaw the removal of seals at a centrifuge storage facility, known as Pars Trash, and the agency said that it would oversee the reopening of a centrifuge production facility Wednesday.
The two main halls at the Natanz complex are buried beneath the sands of central Iran, and have room for some 50,000 centrifuges -- enough to produce a year's supply of low-enriched fuel for Iran's Bushehr power plant, or high-enriched uranium for 25 to 30 bombs annually. Iran, which has yet to master the intricacies of centrifuge production and large-batch enrichment, is believed to be years away from that.
So far, it has installed 164 centrifuges linked in a series called a cascade at a smaller pilot plant built above ground at the Natanz complex. In a note to the agency yesterday, Iran signaled that it plans to complete the pilot plant, which has room for six cascades, with nearly 1,000 centrifuges.
A Vienna-based diplomat said that half of the 164 centrifuges installed at Natanz simply don't work, and that Iran was likely pushing ahead in hopes of perfecting its technology and skills.
Gary Samore, a top nonproliferation official in the Clinton White House and now a vice president at the MacArthur Foundation, said that if all 1,000 centrifuges were to work perfectly, Iran would still need at least three years -- but more likely five years -- to produce enough enriched uranium for a bomb. Mr. Samore nevertheless warns that by running the pilot plant, Iran will be able to develop skills applicable to a weapons program.
The IAEA said yesterday that it will continue to monitor activities at Natanz to ensure that no nuclear material is diverted.
Iran says that it is interested only in producing nuclear fuel for a civilian power program, and that it was forced by U.S. sanctions and the threat of an Israeli attack to hide its efforts from the IAEA for more than two decades.
The Americans and an increasing number of Europeans insist that Iran's real intention is to build a nuclear weapon, and that it has forfeited its right to produce civilian fuel after repeatedly lying to the IAEA about the extent of its nuclear program.
Despite that, Tehran has managed so far to avoid punishment and may be calculating that it can do so again. Last summer Iran pulled out of negotiations with the Europeans and resumed producing uranium feedstock. The Europeans and Americans warned that uranium conversion was a redline for Security Council referral, only to redraw that line at uranium enrichment after the Russians and Chinese balked.
Russia has since tried to broker its own compromise, offering to enrich Iran's uranium feedstock into power-plant fuel on its own territory. With yesterday's action, Iran appears to have rejected that idea.
Alternatively, Iran's new hard-line government may have decided that the value of developing a nuclear capability would outweigh possible punishments, especially at a time when it is earning huge amounts of money from oil exports. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad repeatedly has angered the West in recent months, including calls for wiping Israel off the map.
For more than two decades Iran concealed its nuclear efforts -- including the construction of Natanz -- from the IAEA and the international community. Since its program was publicly revealed in 2002, Iran has been repeatedly caught lying to the IAEA about a variety of nuclear-related activities, including uranium enrichment and laboratory-scale separation of plutonium.
In recent months, the Americans and Europeans have shared intelligence with key IAEA board members; they claim it shows that Iran has been working to adapt a medium-range missile to deliver a black box, which they believe could only be a nuclear warhead. Tehran has denied all the charges, and has blamed its other problems with the agency on bureaucratic mix-ups and confusion.