UN sanctions still remain some way off

By Mark Turner and Roula Khalaf 
January 13, 2006
The Financial Times
Original Source: http://news.ft.com/cms/s/aebf2312-83d9-11da-9017-0000779e2340.html
Yesterday's European ministerial meeting in Berlin makes it increasingly likely that Iran will be referred to the UN Security Council, but diplomats say sanctions or any other enforcement actions remain some way off.
Assuming Russia and China do not oppose a referral, European diplomats envisage a step-by-step approach, ratcheting up pressure over time and taking stock at each new stage.
The Security Council's first move would likely include an appeal to Iran to abide by International Atomic Energy Agency recommendations, as well as a call on Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA head, to report back within a number of days, possibly a month.
Invoking chapter seven of the UN charter, which raises the threat of sanctions or even military force, would probably only be considered after that. Other possibilities include granting the IAEA enhanced powers to conduct intrusive inspections in Iran.
Analysts believe any referral would be significant in itself, not least as a public show of Russia and China's increasing disapproval. But the move also brings risks.
Diplomats are well aware of the limitations of Security Council power, especially if its permanent members are not fully in agreement, and subsequent splits can prove very damaging. Analysts note that North Korea's nuclear violations were reported three years ago, yet failed to produce anyeffective Security Council action.
Western diplomats believe Russia and China will not block a report to New York on the 35-member IAEA board, but it is far from clear how much further the two countries will be prepared to go. Analysts say bilateral contacts between Moscow and Tehran could still change the dynamics.
Even if sanctions are threatened, or imposed, it is far from clear they would have any impact on Iran's behaviour. Rob Malley, Middle East director for the International Crisis Group, notes the one sanction that may hurt Iran [energy] may hurt those who impose it more than Iran itself.
Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, cites two risks in a referral. The first is a repeat of the North Korea experience, where China blocked any Security Council action and insisted on handling the dispute in the six-party talks. The second is that if the Council fails to respond effectively, the US could cite the impotence as a reason to take matters into its own hands. If the Council does act, declaring Iran a danger to international peace and security, the US could also use Council resolutions to justify military strikes.
Yet another risk is that Iran will react to Security Council pressure by ending all co-operation with the IAEA and withdrawing from the Nuclear non-Proliferation Treaty. This would make it all the more difficult to monitor Iran's pursuit of nuclear technology.