Hurdles Await U.S. Bid For Sanctions Against Iran
Compromise, Interpretations Cloud Agreement for Reports On Tehran's Nuclear Efforts

By Marc Champion, Neil King Jr. and David Crawford
February 1, 2006
The Wall Street Journal
Original Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB113868173349760789.html

The U.S. could still face a battle to secure international sanctions against Iran for its alleged nuclear-weapons program, despite securing a deal early yesterday to report Tehran to the United Nations Security Council.
Russian, European and U.S. officials yesterday differed in their interpretation of the agreement, raising the possibility of wrangles to come when a debate on what -- if any -- Security Council action to take begins in about a month.
U.S. officials saw the agreement, which calls for detailed reports on Iran's nuclear programs to be sent to the Security Council, as a breakthrough in getting international action against Iran. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stressed the time the deal bought for further negotiation on Moscow's offer to enrich uranium for Iran's nuclear-power plants on Russian soil.
The Security Council will not make any decisions, Mr. Lavrov said, describing Russia and China as neutral parties in the dispute. He added that the International Atomic Energy Agency -- not the Security Council -- would remain in charge of the process for now. Today, Russian and Chinese nuclear negotiators are scheduled to arrive in Tehran to make another bid to secure a diplomatic solution to the dispute.
An interim report to be delivered by IAEA inspectors at the agency's emergency board meeting tomorrow will detail continuing gaps in Iran's compliance with the IAEA, including the agency's conclusion that a document Iran obtained on the nuclear black market serves no other purpose than to help make an atomic bomb. First mention of the documents was made late last year in a longer IAEA report, but the agency refused at that time to make a judgment on what possible uses such information would have.
Under the agreement, struck over dinner at British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw's home in Britain, the five veto-wielding members of the Security Council -- China, France, Russia, the U.S. and the United Kingdom -- and Germany, agreed to push for a resolution at an emergency meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board in Vienna tomorrow to report to the Security Council concerning Iran's nuclear program.
However, the six said in a joint statement that the Security Council shouldn't take any action until a regular board meeting of the IAEA March 6, when IAEA chief Mohammed ElBaradei will make a full report on Iran, and the board is likely to make a further resolution. The statement avoided the word referral, a term usually used to describe transferring responsibility to the Security Council.
An Iraq-war-style diplomatic dust-up among U.S. allies is unlikely. Despite differences on tactics, the U.S., the European Union and even Russia have worked closely to pressure Iran regarding its nuclear program. But the compromise reached yesterday reflected differences that could yet complicate efforts to punish Tehran with international sanctions.
Speaking to reporters on her way back to Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said the deal was precisely the Security Council referral the U.S. had been seeking for some time. Once the IAEA votes tomorrow, she said, Iran's entire nuclear dossier -- as well as a list of requirements the agency will put forward this week -- will move to the Security Council, as the U.S. and Europe have wanted.
Ms. Rice conceded the U.S. and Europe will face a serious uphill battle within the Security Council to push for any tough measures against Iran, including possible economic sanctions. I don't underestimate the difficulty of maintaining consensus as we move forward, she said.
The one compromise Russia sought in hammering out yesterday's deal, she said, was to delay any Security Council action until after the March 6 meeting. Ms. Rice said moving the matter to the Security Council is the one way to stem the international community's steady erosion of credibility.
European diplomats hailed the deal, but stressed the gradual nature of the process and said the goal for now is to reinforce the IAEA's hand to secure a diplomatic solution, rather than moving to sanctions -- though these could come later.
If Iran blinks, there is no need for any action in New York, said a senior British official, alluding to the U.N.'s headquarters. Iranian compliance, diplomats said, means accepting the Russian deal and allowing IAEA inspectors to reseal equipment to enrich uranium that Iran unsealed Jan. 10, triggering the current diplomatic escalation.
The language was a compromise between the U.S. and EU nations on one side and Russia on the other. The U.S. and EU countries had wanted to refer Iran to the Security Council for immediate action. Russia wanted time to negotiate with Iran over its plan, which would ensure Iran couldn't use its enrichment facilities to make weapons-grade fuel. China has been reluctant to move to the Security Council.
European and U.S. officials say they are confident they have the support they need for tomorrow's expected vote. But diplomats involved in the process say even tomorrow's resolution will need heavy negotiation, because the goal is to get maximum international support.
A diplomat who represents one of the so-called nonaligned countries at the IAEA said yesterday's deal was just part of the puzzle. Countries without nuclear weapons are concerned that the same argument applied to Iran could later be used to prevent them from developing nuclear fuel cycles. Iran is entitled to make nuclear fuel under international law, but it raised suspicions about its program by pursuing the technology covertly.
Iran has been effective in getting its message across: The right to peaceful use of nuclear energy isn't a right if voluntary measures undertaken by a sovereign state are suddenly said to be mandatory, said a senior nonaligned diplomat and IAEA board member. The fear is, if it can happen to Iran, it can happen to anyone.
--Alan Cullison in Moscow contributed to this article.