World powers tighten the noose, but Iran may yet wriggle free

January 31, 2006
The Economist
Original Source: http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=E1_VQGQVGP
 


World powers have agreed to report Iran to the United Nations over its nuclear programme, which looks like bomb-making to Europe and America. The move should be confirmed by the International Atomic Energy Agency on Thursday. But Iran will continue to try to wriggle free

IRAN is finally beginning to feel a noose tighten around it. For several years, western countries have suspected that the Islamic Republic has been developing nuclear weapons, and for just as long Iran’s falsehoods, evasions and hard-nosed negotiating have fed those suspicions. Yet Iran has been adept at dividing those who would make it suffer any consequences. On Monday January 30th, however, America, Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany, joined by the European Union's representative, agreed that Iran's case should be reported to the United Nations Security Council (of which the first five are permanent, veto-wielding members). The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to approve the move on Thursday. 
The catalyst for the latest crisis has been the breakdown in Iran’s dealings with the “EU3” of Britain, France and Germany over work on its nuclear programme. Iran insists that it wants only nuclear power, not weapons. Nobody believes that. Though America and Israel have been itching to take firm action, for the past few years they have left the Europeans to proceed with diplomatic measures: a combination of inducements and rebukes that saw Iran’s domestic nuclear programme suspended for two years. 
That ended decisively earlier this month when Iran’s hardline government said it would break UN seals on its pilot enrichment plant at Natanz, and resume research there. Dismayed Europeans announced that this was a “red line” that must not be crossed, but Iran continued nonetheless. Moreover, news agencies reported on Tuesday that the IAEA report to be discussed on Thursday has damning new evidence. Iran, according to the report, showed the agency (but would not let it copy) a document, obtained on the nuclear black market, which serves no other purpose than to make atomic weapons. The report states that Iran says it didn't ask for the document, but got it as part of a larger purchase of nuclear technology and parts in the 1980s and 1990s.
Iran's ever-changing stories have gradually eroded the patience of the good European cops, and aligned them more closely with the bad cop across the Atlantic. The prospects of Iran being referred to the UN Security Council, to face possible sanctions, have risen sharply.
What happened on Monday, however, was not the toughest move Iran could have faced. Held back by some hesitant members, the group of world powers agreed to “report”, but not formally “refer”, Iran to the Security Council. This means that the IAEA will go on with its work; meanwhile, the Security Council can debate the issue but will not be able to discuss sanctions. The countries that want to push Iran harder have reluctantly agreed to wait until the IAEA issues its next full report. Then, on March 6th, the agency's board of governors will reconsider full referral. This can be done with a simple majority vote.
Meanwhile, the Iranians are doing all they can to muddy the water. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, had earlier offered to enrich nuclear fuel in Russia on Iran’s behalf, thus keeping potential bomb-making enrichment from going on in the Islamic Republic. The Iranians were first cool, insisting on their right, under the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty, to complete the full nuclear fuel cycle. Then last week, Iran’s top nuclear envoy, Ali Larijani, called the Russian idea “useful” and worthy of further discussion. But a day later Iran flip-flopped again, with Mr Larijani once more calling the Russian proposal inadequate.
China and Russia, nuclear powers themselves, have no wish to see Iran go nuclear (which could trigger moves towards nuclear-power status by other Middle Eastern powers, such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey). But both have extensive energy interests in Iran. Russia has been helping to build Iran’s civilian reactor in Bushehr, and China is hungry for energy supplies, such as Iranian oil. It was these countries' opposition to full referral that pushed that prospect to March 6th or later, though Tony Blair, Britain's prime minister, said that Monday's decision showed the world “united” over Iran.

Throwing chaff
Iran will continue with its wily public diplomacy. Its top nuclear negotiator announced on Tuesday that any reporting to the Security Council would end all diplomatic efforts. But there has been such tough talk before. The Iranians are “doing nothing but trying to throw up chaff so that they are not referred to the Security Council and people shouldn't let them get away with it,” said America’s secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice. Iran’s newish president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, a religious fundamentalist, has said nothing to reassure outsiders. He repeatedly denies the Holocaust and has called for Israel to be “wiped off the map”. He has asked Iranians to pray for the coming of the “Mahdi”, or 12th holy imam of Shia Islam, who will destroy God’s enemies. 
On a more worldly level, Mr Ahmadinejad seems untroubled by any threat of sanctions. He notes that pulling Iran’s oil off the world market—when prices are already well above $60 a barrel—would cause pain to oil importers as well as to Iran. His government promises that a referral to the Security Council would immediately end all voluntary co-operation with the IAEA, and that Iran would move from mere research at Natanz to full-scale enrichment.
Such aggressive talk helps to ramp up the tension over the nuclear issue. Iran's diplomats are left to seek ways out before the world takes action. Even if sanctions should come, they are likely to take weak forms such as travel bans and freezes on Iranian assets abroad, rather than comprehensive trade sanctions. 
Instead, some are once again murmuring about military action. Ehud Olmert, the acting prime minister of Israel since Ariel Sharon’s massive stroke, has declared that Iran must not be allowed to get its hands on nuclear weapons “under any circumstances”. The head of Israel’s air force, asked how far he would go to stop Iran’s nukes, has joked “two thousand kilometres”. But air strikes on Iran are risky; they may only delay, rather than eliminate, any weapons programme, since facilities are likely to be scattered and hidden throughout the country. And Iran would surely retaliate with terrorism in Israel, Iraq and Afghanistan.