As U.N. Fills Top Job, Many Names, Few Rules and Talk of Asia's Turn 
By Warren Hoge
February 12, 2006
The New York Times
Original Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/02/12/international/12nations.html

UNITED NATIONS, Feb. 11 — Choosing a new secretary general may be the most telling single action the United Nations takes in 2006, but the organization is saddled with an ill-defined selection procedure that leaves the choice subject to 11th-hour compromises, great power maneuvers and regional rivalries.
The most discussed candidates, at least at the moment, include a Jordanian prince, a Nobel laureate from East Timor, two Eastern European presidents, Sweden's most accomplished diplomat, a former Sri Lankan ambassador to Washington, a Harvard-trained Thai lawyer, a Canadian judge, South Korea's foreign minister and a Turkish economist.
But if history is a guide, it is likely that none of them will emerge the winner and that the person who does is not being publicly discussed.
Dag Hammarskjold, the second secretary general, did not even know he was a candidate when he was told on April 1, 1953, that he had been selected. He thought it was an April Fool's joke, said Sir Brian Urquhart, a former under secretary general who was Mr. Hammarskjold's biographer.
Kofi Annan's second five-year term ends on Dec. 31, and there is particular interest in the contest to succeed him because scandals in the oil-for-food program and the organization's purchasing office have prompted calls for an executive with proven management skills in addition to the usual diplomatic talents.
But there are no established qualifications for the post, no search committees, no interviews, no background checks, no campaign rules and no forums for showcasing aspirants and their ideas. 
I think there are real questions about openness and transparency, and it would be better for the institution if we had a clear understanding of the criteria and qualifications for candidates and an opportunity for member states to be introduced to them before the final selection is made, said Allan Rock, the ambassador of Canada, which is circulating a proposal for an eventual overhaul of the procedure. John R. Bolton, the American ambassador, said he intended to devote time to discussing the succession plan in the Security Council this month, while the United States occupies the presidency.
Much of the current jockeying is being done in secret because it can be risky for the hopefuls to make their ambitions known too early. 
It's the exact opposite of a U.S. presidential race where you want to get out of the box early and scare off opponents by fund-raising and showing well in primaries, said Courtney B. Smith, an associate professor at the John C. Whitehead School of Diplomacy and International Relations at Seton Hall University. 
The job is described in the United Nations Charter as simply chief administrative officer and the method of choice as appointed by the General Assembly upon the recommendation of the Security Council.
In reality, reflecting where power truly resides at the United Nations, the 191-member General Assembly ratifies a candidate selected by the 15-member Security Council. The real arbiters are the council's five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — who have the veto.
At the U.N., Mr. Smith said, the winner turns out to be the least objectionable person to the most number of countries, and particularly to the permanent five. 
The last time the United Nations selected a new secretary general was in 1996, when Mr. Annan was officially chosen — only two weeks before he took the job.
Prompted by Mr. Bolton, a number of countries are backing a plan to hold the vote this year by the time the General Assembly convenes in September.
The idea of having a real transition period makes eminent sense, and most member states would tend to agree in theory, said Edward C. Luck, professor of international affairs at Columbia. The problem is, can they settle on a candidate by the middle of the year? It would be a major triumph, but I'm not betting the farm on it.
This year was long previewed as Asia's turn to fill the post, because it had not done so since the Burmese U Thant finished his second term in 1971. Mr. Bolton has challenged that regional rotation idea, saying that the only criterion should be merit. 
Of the other four veto holders, Britain shares Mr. Bolton's view, France contends that region should be a priority but not the defining one, and China and Russia say they will insist on an Asian.
At a recent reception, Wang Guangya, China's ambassador, said his country would support only candidates from Asia, a polite way of saying it would threaten to veto candidates from elsewhere.
Washington has put forward the idea of a candidate from Eastern Europe, and Mr. Bolton told reporters last week: If geographical rotation is a sacred principle, Asia has already had a secretary general. When does Eastern Europe gets its turn?
Mihnea Motoc, the Romanian ambassador, said that in addition to the fact that his region had never had a secretary general, Eastern Europeans were underrepresented throughout the United Nations ranks. He also argued that because many of the region's countries had experienced the transformational process of replacing Communist regimes with democratic administrations, they were well prepared to lead the needed reshaping of the United Nations. 
Mr. Motoc acknowledged the widespread perception that Russia would veto any candidate from a region that so recently broke from Soviet control, but he added: That's not 100 percent accurate. We all know the special role and responsibility Russia has in this process, but this is a highly dynamic process, and I wouldn't assume that anyone's options are fixed at this point.
Three Asians are declared candidates: Thailand's deputy prime minister, Surakiart Sathirathai, a Harvard-educated lawyer with a background in finance and international economics; Jayantha Dhanapala of Sri Lanka, a former United Nations under secretary general for disarmament and onetime envoy to the United States; and Ban Ki Moon, the South Korean foreign minister, who the Korean mission said would formally enter the race in Seoul on Tuesday. José Ramos-Horta, a Nobel Peace Prize winner and the foreign minister of East Timor, said he was not campaigning but would be interested if the Security Council turned to him.
Kemal Dervis, a former finance minister of Turkey, said he wanted to focus on his new job as administrator of the United Nations Development Program.
In Eastern Europe, Vaira Vike-Freiberga, the president of Latvia, and Alexander Kwasniewski, the former president of Poland, have said they are available.
Favorites in the iconic glass headquarters on the East River — but not necessarily in the major capitals where the final decision will be agreed on — are Prince Zeid al-Hussein of Jordan, his country's ambassador and a former peacekeeper in Bosnia; Jan Eliasson of Sweden, the president of the General Assembly; and Louise Arbour, the war crimes prosecutor and onetime Canadian Supreme Court justice who is now high commissioner for human rights.
Toshiro Ozawa, Japan's deputy ambassador, said he believed there was a determination among Asians to ensure that the job went to their region and that more Asian candidacies would be forthcoming. Looking at past history, it may make sense to have multiple candidates rather than going for one, and my guess is that there are many candidates out there who may announce, he said.
Mr. Luck, the Columbia professor, said he thought the nod would go to the candidate that the United States and China could agree on. That would have tremendous momentum, he said.
Richard C. Holbrooke, the former American ambassador to the United Nations, said he thought China had the influence to guarantee an Asian choice.
A lot of people have thrown up a lot of names, but in the real world, the fact that the Asians have not had a secretary general since U Thant is of tremendous importance to China, and China will make damn sure it happens, he said.
Correction: Feb. 13, 2006 
A picture yesterday with an article about the process for selecting the next secretary general of the United Nations was published in error. It showed Manjusri Jayantha Palipane, the Sri Lankan ambassador to Germany, not Jayantha Dhanapala, a former under secretary general for disarmament who is a declared candidate.