Venezuela, Cuba likely to get U.N. spots
Despite Bush administration efforts to stop Venezuela and Cuba from joining key U.N. councils, the two nations' chances are good.

By Pablo Bachelet
April 19, 2006
The Miami Herald
Original Source: http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/14373707.htm

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration is battling to stop Venezuela and Cuba from gaining seats in important U.N. posts in a confrontation that has many Latin American nations caught in the middle, diplomats and analysts say.
Most observers believe Washington faces an uphill battle to keep Venezuela out of the Security Council and Cuba out of a newly created U.N. Human Rights Council.
COURTING NATIONS
While President Bush is generally disliked abroad, leftist Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez and Cuban leader Fidel Castro have courted nations with a strong anti-U.S. discourse and offerings that range from discounted oil to free eye surgery.
The first showdown will take place May 9, when the 191-member U.N. General Assembly votes for 47 members of a new Human Rights Council. Eleven Latin American nations, including Venezuela and Cuba, are vying for eight spots reserved for the region.
Venezuela also wants to replace Argentina as one of the two Latin American members on the 15-seat Security Council. That election, to a two-year term, is expected in October.
''It is consistent with [Chávez's] quest to be a global player,'' said Michael Shifter of the Inter-American Dialogue think-tank, who noted that Chávez has supported Iran's nuclear program.
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has personally appealed to countries not to vote for Venezuela, and Washington is making it clear it doesn't want Cuba or Venezuela in either U.N. agency.
''It's about ensuring that these organs in the U.N. are effective in upholding the principles of the U.N., and the membership is key,'' said Ben Chang, a spokesman for the U.S. mission before the United Nations.
The new Human Rights Council replaced the previous Commission on Human Rights, where countries accused of rights abuses such as Cuba, Iran and Zimbabwe regularly became members and then worked to stop its condemnations.
NEW COUNCIL
In March, the United Nations created the new body with tougher membership requirements and other changes. But the U.S. government, arguing the reforms did not go far enough, voted against the new council and then declined to run for a seat.
Many human rights activists and diplomats believe Cuba has a good chance of winning a seat on the council, thanks to Havana's efficient diplomatic corps and friendships with other small and poor nations.
''My guess is they'll probably get in,'' said Iain Levine, who heads the U.N. program at Human Rights Watch. ``Obviously, one is concerned when a government that violates human rights is on the council, but [the council] will be stronger than the individuals on it.''
Washington, however, would view Cuba's election as a bad sign.
''It would be an unfortunate and sad statement that it's business as usual,'' said a State Department official, who asked for anonymity to speak freely on a delicate subject.
The other Latin American countries running for council seats are Argentina, Venezuela, Brazil, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Peru, Ecuador, Nicaragua and Uruguay, according to Human Rights Watch.
Diplomats say Venezuela's bid to join the council is more of a long shot because the country sharply criticized the resolution that created it. But its chances are much better at securing a Security Council seat.
Venezuela has been campaigning for months for the post, reaching out to countries in Africa, Asia and the Middle East, said Imeria Nuńez de Odreman, Venezuela's acting ambassador to the United Nations.
''We are very confident we can win,'' she added.
Venezuela needs at least two-thirds of the General Assembly votes and to beat out Guatemala, a U.S.-backed candidate for one of the rotating seats on the Security Council.
Rice asked Caribbean leaders to support Guatemala's bid when she met Caribbean Community leaders last month. U.S. and Latin American diplomats say she is also likely to raise the issue when she meets Friday with Alejandro Foxley, the foreign minister of Chile, a key moderate voice in Latin American affairs.
LITTLE CHANCE
But most observers say Guatemala, despite U.S. support, has little chance of winning because it lacks Venezuela's worldwide reach.
Venezuela has 11 embassies in Africa -- a crucial voting bloc -- second only to Brazil and Cuba. And the Chávez government has aggressively used its oil wealth to gain more influence on the international stage, selling crude to Caribbean nations on easy terms, buying billions of dollars worth of bonds from Argentina and Ecuador and ordering oil tankers from Brazilian shipyards.
Shifter said the United States should be careful not to overplay its hand.
''At the end of the day, most governments would prefer to work with the United States,'' he said, ``but in a way they are not seen as apologists for the Bush administration.''