As U.N. Inquiry Drags on, Syrians Ask if They Should Relax 
By Michael Slackman
June 16, 2006
The New York Times
Original Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/16/world/middleeast/16syria.html

DAMASCUS, Syria, June 15 — Even as the United Nations Security Council voted Thursday to extend the investigation into the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister, there was a sense here that the pressure was off, that Syria was no longer in imminent danger of being charged with the crime or punished by the international community.
After 14 months, there is no concrete evidence that incriminates Syria, said Georges Jabbour, a Baathist member of Parliament. Since the world rushed to blame Syria, I think that the damage to Syria's image is something that must be rectified by those who are responsible.
But that view was only half the picture. There was also a feeling here that Syria might simply be sitting in the eye of the storm. Officials at the highest levels fear that the new low-key investigator, Serge Brammertz of Belgium, may in the long run prove more dangerous than his high-profile predecessor, Detlev Mehlis of Germany, according to political analysts and people who work with the government.
Mr. Mehlis named names and leveled charges against the leadership's inner circle, providing a target for the government to try to undermine, which it did aggressively. By comparison Mr. Brammertz has disclosed little about what he may or may not have come up with, leaving those in power to guess where he is going. 
They are worried inside, but they are not showing it, said Marwan Kabalan, a professor of international relations at Damascus University, speaking about the Syrian leadership. Under Mehlis, everything was clear to everybody. There were no secrets. This is why Brammertz is more dangerous.
Faced with such uncertainty, but also empowered by the release of immediate pressure, the leadership here has tried to shore up its position, bracing for the day when, or if, a damning report is produced. 
The government has strengthened ties with Iran, arrested opposition leaders and sought to pacify Islamists. Perhaps most striking, it has worked to appease Washington by trying to seal the borders with Iraq and by planning to send the foreign minister to Baghdad this week, an overture being portrayed as an effort to help stabilize Iraq.
The assassination of Mr. Hariri in February 2005 was a critical moment in Syria's modern history. Even while the government insisted it had not played any role in the killing, the murder generated so much pressure that Damascus was forced to pull its troops out of Lebanon. The humiliating withdrawal fueled rumors that the government was in trouble.
The pressure intensified when the first prosecutor reported that witnesses implicated the president's brother and brother-in-law in planning the assassination, while telling the Security Council that the Syrians were defiant by not cooperating.
But the murder of Mr. Hariri can no longer be viewed as a singular act — if it ever could. It is one strand among many that have come to define the contemporary Middle East, from the election of Hamas to run the Palestinian Authority, to the bloodshed in Iraq. Those events have strengthened the Syrian government's position, even if only for the short run.
Syria's own problems with Islamic militants have also proved to be a short-term plus for the government. Earlier this month, Syria reported that its security forces had killed four armed terrorists in Umayyad Square during a shootout. Diplomats and analysts in Syria have been saying for months that Islamist radicals have been debating whether to bring the fight here, and the recent shootout demonstrated that some have decided to try.
But for the government, the Islamist threat offers the government a chance to press back against efforts to undermine or oust President Bashar al-Assad and his secular Baathist government. 
Practically, for Syria, America won't be able to occupy Damascus anytime soon, said Dr. Samir al-Taqi, who serves as a health adviser to the government and is helping to build a new research organization focusing on international relations. They won't embark tomorrow on attacking Iran. Subsequently, the major players are the regional players. 
But as is the case with most of the good news for Syria these days, this is conditional. 
The United Nations investigator, Mr. Brammertz, issued his most recent report to the Security Council this week, and it was immediately viewed as positive for Damascus. 
But a more subtle look at the investigation also suggested that Mr. Brammertz had settled on the notion that the crime had political motivations. More ominously to Syrian officials, he appeared to be linking Mr. Hariri's killing to 14 other bombings in Lebanon, political analysts here said.
The pressure is off but not finished, said Ibrahim Hamidi, the Damascus bureau chief for a pan-Arab newspaper, Al Hayat. The sword is still at the Syrian neck.
Katherine Zoepf contributed reporting for this article.