Search starts in earnest to succeed Annan as UN secretary-general
By Mark Turner and Jo Johnson
July 19, 2006
The Financial Times
Original Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/b93c3592-16c2-11db-8b7b-0000779e2340.html

The search for a new UN secretary-general shifts into a higher gear during the last 10 days of this month, as the Security Council prepares to cast a first informal straw poll on the person to replace Kofi Annan when he steps down at the end of the year.
The 15 members will give their first impressions of the four formally declared candidates - from India, Sri Lanka, Thailand and South Korea - through an anonymous indication of encourage, discourage or no opinion. The candidates will be informed of their result.
Asia's claim appeared to be increasingly firm after George W. Bush, the US president, last Tuesday appeared to concede the principle of regional rotation. We're really looking in the Far East right now to be the secretary-general, he said.
Several UN diplomats and commentators noted a general sense that none of the candidates were likely to succeed, although long-time UN watchers also warn the process is inherently unpredictable. Despite calls by the UN General Assembly for more involvement, the choice this year will remain dominated by the UN Security Council and its five permanent members.
In India, the decision by Manmohan Singh, prime minister, to back the candidacy of Shashi Tharoor, an author and head of the UN's department of public information, has perplexed some Indian diplomats and a number of foreign governments. Secretaries-general for the most part have come from smaller countries, and unwritten convention has it that nationals of permanent members of the Security Council - and, by implication, prospective ones - cannot win the job.
India's decision to break a six-decade-long tradition of not putting up its own candidate for the post would appear to reflect a certain pessimism about its chances of joining the Security Council any time soon, or at any rate during the new secretary-general's mandate.
The time-frames for the two enterprises is completely different, says Mr Tharoor, by telephone. Why should India deny itself something in the name of a status it doesn't actually have? Navtej Sarna, a spokesman for the ministry of external affairs, says India has a dual track strategy and it would be incorrect to perceive India's support for one as dilution of our commitment to the other.
Another potential obstacle to Mr Tharoor, 50, is the impression that he is too closely linked with Mr Annan, and questions over his managerial record. One has to look no further than at the DPI [department of public information] to know its leader should not get a promotion, said a US official.
The London-born author and UN lifer has so far been the beneficiary of only half-hearted lobbying from Indian officials. Mischievous diary items are making telling appearances in the Indian newspapers. Sceptics also draw attention to a self-promotional website, www.shashitharoor.com, replete with soft-focus photos of an undeniably flattering vintage.
But Mr Tharoor, author of The Great Indian Novel, denies he is too flamboyant for the secretary-generalship. Don't forget I am a known commodity, he said. Governments know I'm a serious and effective official. A consummate networker, he won strong applause at the recent African Union summit in Banjul, one African diplomat noted. He also won the recent explicit backing of Belarus, not exactly the west's favourite nation.
Inevitably, his unexpected nomination has prompted Pakistan to search for an alternative candidate. Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's high commissioner to London who formerly served as ambassador to Washington, has been mentioned as a possibility.
Amid mounting competition, South Korea last week formally nominated its foreign minister, Ban Ki-moon, as a candidate. Tradition has it that a Korean cannot lead the UN while the peninsula remains divided, but Mr Ban told the FT that the continued separation of north and south gave Koreans a unique understanding of the complex issues the UN faces.
The other official candidates are Jayantha Dhanapala, from Sri Lanka, and Surakiart Sathirathai, a Thai. While the latter is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations candidate, there is a sense that he started his campaign far too soon and has failed to gain traction. The conventional wisdom is that none of the four candidates stand much of a chance, said one Security Council diplomat.
The idea is that once the field has cleared, other candidates will emerge from the wings. One strong potential figure could be Goh Chok Tong, Singapore's former prime minister. Ashraf Ghani, Afghanistan's respected former finance minister, is also contemplating a bid, having been approached by President Hamid Karzai and sounded out by several European governments, the FT has learnt.
Mr Bush's statement would appear to rule out any of the eastern European candidates, while events in East Timor have put Jose Ramos-Horta out of the race. Kemal Dervis, the architect of Turkish economic reforms and UN development programme head, and Prince Zeid of Jordan are still thought to be in the picture. An entertaining website, unsg.org, provides a helpful list of other possible contenders.
Additional reporting by Anna Fifield in Seoul and Farhan Bokhari in Islamabad