Defying another deadline
February 22, 2007
Chicago Tribune
Original Source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-0702220034feb22,0,5519716.story?coll=chi-newsopinion-hed


Has it already been 60 days since the UN Security Council slapped some weak sanctions on Iran and issued a deadline for it to shut down its nuclear program? How quickly the time passes.

That deadline expired Wednesday without any signs that Iran is changing course. Just the opposite. Iran has been busy expanding its nuclear efforts. International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei warned recently that Iran has mastered the complex technology of enrichment. He told the Financial Times that Tehran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale. That would be a huge--and alarming--step toward creating enough material for a bomb.

ElBaradei said Iran reached that point by running a pilot program for many months. Those would be all the months that Tehran tied up first the Europeans, then the Russians and finally the UN Security Council in talks that went nowhere.

If ElBaradei is right, then every day is critical. If Iran proceeds unchecked with enrichment, it will overcome technical hurdles and become a full-fledged nuclear state. Some outside force might try to take out that capability with air strikes. But as ElBaradei, a Nobel Peace Prize winner, says: You cannot bomb knowledge.

A nuclear Iran doesn't enhance the interests of world peace. Tehran already funds and equips terrorists across the Middle East, and its president has called for Israel to be wiped off the map.

So now the feckless diplomatic dance resumes. A new report from the IAEA will confirm that Iran has been accelerating its nuclear efforts, not freezing them. There will be talks on further Security Council sanctions, discussions on new ultimatums and fresh deadlines. But don't look for any serious action. Russia and China are likely to shield Iran, their close trading partner and source of energy, from harsh measures.

There is, however, some encouraging evidence that Iran is feeling the squeeze from a U.S.-led campaign of economic, diplomatic and military pressure. The latest blow: India, a longtime ally of Tehran, announced that it has banned the export to Iran of all material, equipment and technology that could contribute to Iran's nuclear program. The U.S. also is adding more Iranian companies to the list of those under sanction.

Even with a deluge of oil wealth, Iran's economy is weak. Government officials reportedly are drawing up plans to ration fuel to cut back galloping consumption. The Russians announced they're slowing work on a nuclear plant at Bushehr because, they say, the Iranians haven't paid them in two months. And there are hopeful signs that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political opposition is coalescing.

The price Iran is paying for international defiance is growing. But to stop its nuclear ambitions, that price needs to grow steeper--fast.