Advice to Policy Followers: Ignore the Serious Issues

By Benny Avni
September 24, 2007
The New York Sun
Original Source: http://www.nysun.com/article/63257
As world leaders flock to New York City this week, here is a piece of advice to serious foreign policy followers looking in on the annual U.N. General Assembly debate: Ignore the hard-hitting policy issues and instead watch the sensationalized headline grabbers, such as last year's Diablo comment by President Chavez and this year's antics by President Ahmadinejad. Let's quickly go over the serious issues:
IRAQ
This topic probably presents the single most important shift in U.N. thinking since the arrival of Secretary-General Ban earlier this year. Mr. Ban's predecessor, Kofi Annan, was committed to proving that the Iraq war was born in sin. He had little incentive to help America and its allies there, and Mr. Ban wants to change this stance. But the U.N. bureaucracy, far from being converted to his thinking on this issue, will maintain its resistance to Mr. Ban's policy shift for some time.
SUDAN
Mr. Ban has made Herculean efforts in attempting to bring the warring sides in Darfur together to a new political paradigm. Meanwhile, the 25,000-troop U.N.-led force that is supposed to back up this diplomacy has been slow to materialize. One emerging problem: Even as they near the end of their capacity to contribute troops, African countries are unlikely to supply enough soldiers for the new mission, which is expected to be deployed early next year. President al-Bashir of Sudan has expressed his opposition to the deployment of non-African troops in his country. Who will contribute the extra troops, and how Khartoum will be convinced to allow them in are questions unlikely to be answered this week.
IRAN
Even beyond the latest talk in Paris, Washington, and Jerusalem about more aggressive ways to stop Tehran from getting the bomb, the U.N. Security Council-based diplomacy of sanctions is likely to have reached the point of exhaustion. Russia and China consistently resist any significant punitive measures. Look elsewhere for economic and other pressures on Iran to intensify, including in more and more ad hoc coalitions of the willing.
ARAB-ISRAELI PEACE
Yesterday, the Quartet — America, Russia, the European Union, and the United Nations — which was originally formed to advance the emergence of a democratic, non-belligerent Palestinian Arab state, convened here with its new leader, Prime Minister Blair. Last night, Arab leaders joined representatives from the Quartet for a traditional Ramadan fast-breaking meal. Two regional players not present were Israel and the Palestinian Arabs. Is there any better commentary on the Quartet's relevance?
THE WEATHER
One of the most prominent issues at the current General Assembly session will be climate change. A lot of hot air is expected about topics like curbing carbon emission — as in the increasing traffic of commercial and private planes. None of the national representatives plans to use a rowboat or a donkey to get to New York to debate such issues.
U.N. REFORM
See last year, and the year before that, all the way back to the world body's inception.
The annual General Assembly debate never advances the issues its leaders say they want to address. In some years, a chance hallway meeting, a rare handshake, or an awkward smile become significant. The pomp and circumstance, meanwhile, is a good opportunity for rogue leaders to grandstand, and for others to assess whether they want to go along.
Shortly after the Simon Bolivar wannabe Mr. Chavez reverted to stand-up comedy last year, calling President Bush El Diablo — the devil — during his General Assembly address, Venezuela's bid to become a Security Council member was defeated in a vote among its Latin American peers, who referred to Mr. Chavez's speech as the main reason for voting against him.
Middle Easterners, and especially their representatives in U. N. institutions, who tend to sound more radicalized than their leaders back home, similarly have not rejected off-the-wall radicalism. Any shift in this trend is more likely to materialize at such events as the Washington summit of regional players, planned for November, than at Turtle Bay.
Policy wonks dismissed Mr. Chavez's performance last year as a sideshow. But it grabbed headlines and became the only memorable moment of a GA debate that at the time was dubbed the largest-ever gathering of world leaders. The Diablo speech also became the only event with any lasting significance.
Mr. Ahmadinejad's GA performance, as well as his appearance at Columbia University today, is shaping up to have the same effect.