Politicus: Sarkozy tries charm, but Putin isn't budging on Iran arms question

By John Vinocur
October 11, 2007
International Herald Tribune
Original Source: http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/10/11/news/politicus.php

MOSCOW: One more time, Vladimir Putin has told the world that Iran is not working on a nuclear bomb.
Once again, with Nicolas Sarkozy in a passing role as discomforted foil, Putin has taken this most frightening of planetary issues and said in effect that the prospect of nuclear weapons in the hands of the mullahs was a delusion, an international fantasy.
Indeed, Putin made all this out as a fable that his Russia - Iran's protector and supplier of nuclear wherewithal - could confidently dismiss.
Here, in about 20 minutes Wednesday, was a moment of exceptional arrogance and darkness.
Sarkozy, who had come to Moscow for two days as a doubter hoping to find something reasonable in Putin (even praising him as courageous, direct and determined), wound up being publicly contradicted as a know-nothing for his stance asserting that Iran is driving hard toward producing nukes.
This excruciating, face-to-face public episode during a news conference in the Kremlin's St. Catherine Hall left Sarkozy dangling in embarrassment, his good intentions trampled by his host.
Somberly, and in much more significant terms, Putin was also confirming the basically intractable Russian position on Iran's Islamic extremist nuclear threat.
Putin explained, We do not have any data that says Iran is trying to produce nuclear weapons. We do not have such objective data. Therefore, we proceed from the position that Iran has no such plans.
This says: since Iran has only peaceful intentions, there is no ultimate problem, or any need to discuss solutions for resolving the nonexistent.
And that means: when Western visitors ask Putin what he will do in the end, beyond tactical fiddling, to halt Iran's nuclear drive - a question posed directly to him this year by another European leader - the answer is unclear and unsatisfactory.

It has never been, don't worry, I'll help, it won't happen. Rather, the response is a molasses-heavy fudge involving improbable questions and nonassurances about Iran's intentions.
So when Sarkozy told reporters Tuesday night of a very clear convergence of views emerging with Vladimir on Iran, and said he did not want to say more in light of Putin's visit to Tehran next week, the idea flickered that Putin might be moving on the basics and off his see-no-evil approach.
After all, consider the corner where this optimism was coming from: a French president who has been verbally tough on Russia, who twice proclaimed himself to Putin on Tuesday as a clear ally of the United States and who has said rather more explicitly than George W. Bush that Iran is working on a nuclear device.
As Sarkozy's spokesman put it last month: Everybody knows this program has military intentions.
Along came the Wednesday news conference. Where at first it had been Vladimir, Vladimir, Vladimir on Sarkozy's side, Putin directed his remarks to Mr. President. French reporters picked up a change from Putin's use of the palsy-walsy tu form in addressing Sarkozy to the more distant vous. And Sarkozy scaled back the strong rapprochement talk of the night before to a certain convergence.
Sarkozy discovered a Putin who decided not to play charmed and ready-for-change on the strength of the arguments of a newcomer eager to portray himself as Europe's go-to leader.
Hearing himself rebuffed, the French president, in recovery mode, waded into some murky syntactic waters. As transcribed by Reuters's French-language news service, he said: So, there can be diverging analyses on 'they (the Iranians) are doing it.' I think everybody is in agreement. Do they want to use it? That's a question of analysis.
Deconstructed, Sarkozy seemed to be saying here that the Russians agree Iran is enriching uranium at a pace that raises questions.
But that's hardly new. And neither is what he described as Putin's will to cooperate in the United Nations, where Russia has sought to block a new round of sanctions. Or for that matter, Putin's expressed interest in more transparency from Iran on a nuclear program they've hidden for decades.
Short of a major surprise in Tehran next week, there was no sign that Sarkozy had gotten anything from Putin - remember that France regards an Iran with nukes as intolerable - to be held aloft as an achievement.
Not that Sarkozy caved on his basic take on Russia. With Moscow students, he chided Moscow's interest in re-establishing a clear zone of influence in the countries at its borders. He complained about it using energy supply for political ends, noted the disappearance of democracy, met with activists critical of the regime and said that Europe would recognize Kosovo's independence regardless of Russia's objections.
But he offered compliments and got none in return, and insisted on sounding optimistic without demonstrating the specifics.
In the end, Sarkozy sought to create the picture of the start of a comfortable relationship with a hard man who hadn't the tiniest of concessions for someone who a few weeks earlier accurately described Russia as a country which complicates the resolution of the world's greatest problems.
Sarkozy's domestic political method of trying to claim a triumph per day banged into the Kremlin wall and fell flat. A smart and resilient politician, Sarkozy may find instruction here from Putin about the functioning of the wide world.
As for Putin himself, he offered a universal lesson.
He will attempt to protect Iran as long as it is useful to him, leveraging the Iranian threat into a role of essential influence for Russia in the Middle East, pushing the United States into inactivity or a military response and calculating that there's advantage to Russia in every possible outcome, even in a nuke or two marked with the insignia of the mullahs' Revolutionary Guards.
The answer to this predicament, as it has always been, is direct U.S. talks with the Iranians.
They would not only end Russian control of the issue, but raise pressure on the regime in Tehran from its people. It is the Iranians themselves who can best see the danger of Iran becoming a nuclear warrior in the awful alternative Sarkozy raised last month and that no one wants:
An Iranian bomb, or the bombing of Iran.