Take Two

November 2, 2007 
The Wall Street Journal 
Original Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119395238384479590.html

When United Nations envoy Ibrahim Gambari lands in Burma tomorrow, he will have a lot on his shoulders. Ever since the regime's brutal suppression of pro-democracy protests in late September, foreign leaders have been talking a lot about how much they support Mr. Gambari's diplomacy efforts. More often than not, their line is that these are more likely to succeed if they don't directly engage the ruling generals themselves.
That theory will be tested next week, as Mr. Gambari tries to lure the generals toward democracy with a new basket of incentives. The latest carrot flows from French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner's call for the creation of an international trust fund for development in Burma. The European Union is considering the stick tack of threatening import sanctions on Burmese gems and timber unless the generals cooperate with Mr. Gambari.
The incentives route has been tried before, however, and its track record is abysmal. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations admitted Burma in 1997 in the belief that increased contact with other countries in the region would motivate Burma to reform -- but it didn't. A reported U.N.-backed attempt in 1998 to offer up to a billion dollars in aid in return for greater political openness didn't move the generals either.
More promising was the result after the U.S. imposed financial sanctions on seven Burmese businesses last month, and Singapore severed links with one of the affected companies, Air Bagan. Deprived of access to spare parts, and some financing, the airline looks set to cancel its flights to Singapore already. Not a huge loss for the regime, only a sting. But if the subject comes up in talks with Mr. Gambari this week, he, and we, may have a better idea of what it takes to get the generals' attention.