UN talks to consider fresh Iran measures

By James Blitz, Daniel Dombey and Harvey Morris
October 31, 2007 
The Financial Times
Original Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/05d5576a-87df-11dc-9464-0000779fd2ac.html


The permanent five members of the United Nations Security Council together with Germany will meet in London on Friday to begin discussing the terms of a new resolution that might trigger fresh sanctions against Iran.
At the start of a critical month of diplomacy between Iran and the west, political directors from the group will examine new ways to punish Iran if it fails to comply with international efforts to ensure it does not develop a nuclear weapon.
In three weeks' time, Iran faces two tests of its willingness to co-operate with the international community. Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, will state whether the country is meeting its recent pledge to provide information about past nuclear activities.
Javier Solana, the European Union's foreign policy chief, will also report to the UN on the progress he has made in persuading Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment programme, as the UN has demanded.
Friday's meeting is a technical one but it is an important new step in the story, said a diplomat involved in talks with Iran. The meeting will not take decisions but it will put the Security Council in a situation where it can act quickly if Iran fails to respond adequately to the ElBaradei and Solana initiatives.
The US last week took a range of unilateral financial and diplomatic steps against the Quds force of Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard as well as other named figures and organisations in Tehran. US officials said they were not looking for the UN to endorse identical measures. I don't think anyone sees it as a template for what is happening in the UN process, said a US official. 
However, the US hopes Russia and China will approve a UN resolution that would have the symbolic effect of further isolating Iran and incrementally increasing the pressure on Tehran through practical new steps.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia's foreign minister, this week criticised the unilateral measures taken by the US, saying they won't help to continue collective efforts.
However, senior EU diplomats believe Russia is privately far more understanding of western concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions than is often suggested. I see Russia exerting pressure on Iran to an unexpected degree, said one. 
By contrast, China is thought to have more substantive objections to a new resolution. China has significant economic interests in Iran and this will create a real problem in getting a UN agreement, said a senior EU diplomat. It is unlikely that China has yet had any chance to revisit its position so soon after the recent Communist party congress.
Some western diplomats continue to believe Iran might respond positively to the ElBaradei and Solana initiatives. We are not excluding the possibility that something positive may come out of these talks, said an EU diplomat. The risk is that the Iranians think they are doing enough and they miscalculate.
In the US and UK, there are fears the Security Council will be divided after Mr ElBaradei reports. ElBaradei is undoubtedly concerned about some kind of war but but his strategy might make a conflict more likely, said one western diplomat. The US wants a credible international policy. If ElBaradei protects Iran, that policy will have less credibility.