Outgoing IAEA chief has tough choice on Iran
By George Jahn
August 20, 2009
Associated Press
Original Source:  http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h3ynZjvcWWut27ZvhXWnbq6GoK4QD9A6LM5G0
VIENNA   For close to a year, diplomats say, a report on Iran's alleged nuclear weapons experiments has been sitting in a drawer of a U.N. nuclear monitoring agency, with access limited to only a few top officials.
The question is whether the document   a summary of all the International Atomic Energy Agency knows about Iran's nuclear program   will be made public when agency publishes its latest report on Iran within two weeks.
As that date approaches IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is faced with the tough choice of publishing all his agency findings about Iran's alleged arms programs, or leaving the decision to his successor later this year.
The existence of a secret IAEA summary of what the agency knows based on its investigations and U.S. and other intelligence was confirmed to The Associated Press over the past few days by three senior western diplomats from nations accredited to the IAEA, as well as a senior international official who follows the Iran nuclear issue.
What's more, the information concerning allegations that Iran actively pursued research into developing nuclear warheads and the way to deliver them has been available since September, the diplomats say.
Since then, the U.S. and its allies have pushed the agency to circulate the summary among the IAEA's 35 board member nations of what it knew and its conclusions about the allegations, said the diplomats, who demanded anonymity for discussing confidential issues.
But although even some of his senior aides favor publication, ElBaradei has balked, they said. The agency chief has been keen to avoid moves that could harden already massive Iranian intransigence on cooperating with his agency on probing the allegations and on other issues   and of pushing the U.S. or Israel closer to a possible military strike on Tehran's nuclear facilities.
IAEA spokesman Marc Vidricaire said Thursday the agency would not comment.
The Nobel Peace Prize-winning IAEA chief may possibly already be focusing on his legacy as his 12-year tenure winds down.
A restricted draft resolution shared with the AP and prepared by his agency for a 35-nation board meeting starting Sept. 7 pays tribute to Elbaradei and lauds the significant contribution he has made to the work of the agency and the cause of international peace and security during his distinguished and successful tenure as Director General.
The draft calls for him to be named Director General Emeritus   an honor also accorded to his immediate predecessors.
His last day is Nov. 30. And as that date draws closer ElBaradei has repeated calls for talks on and with Iran instead of tough talk   gaining praise from the developing world but enforcing the view among his Western critics that he often oversteps his agency's mandate as purely technical organization with no political message.
He also has sharp words for his critics: As to how we write our reports, that's our business, he told a June session of the board.
Washington unsuccessfully lobbied in 2005 to block ElBaradei's reappointment because his statements on Iraq and Iran were peppered with barely disguised criticisms of U.S. policy. The West has also viewed some statements on Israel and Gaza as overtly political, even while they were praised by Arab nations and their backers.
Elbaradei's reports on Iran have become more critical after months of continued Iranian stonewalling of IAEA efforts to monitor and investigate Iran's nuclear programs.
Still, Western delegations say they do not go far enough in faulting Tehran for withholding information and continuing to expand uranium enrichment, which can create both nuclear fuel and the fissile material for warheads.
Iran dismisses the weapons programs allegations as groundless and ElBaradei himself has said there is no concrete evidence that Iran was engaged in such work   even while suggesting two months ago that Tehran wants to have the capability to build such arms.
But a senior diplomat who regularly talks with leading agency experts told the AP last year that the experts viewed much of the intelligence forwarded by the U.S and other nations on alleged secret Iranian nuclear arms work as compelling.
U.S. intelligence includes material on a laptop computer reportedly smuggled out of Iran and indicating that Tehran had been working on details of nuclear weapons, including missile trajectories and ideal altitudes for exploding warheads.
Among other intelligence Washington also gave the agency information on the alleged Green Salt Project   a plan the U.S. claims links diverse components of a nuclear weapons program, including uranium enrichment, high explosives testing and a missile re-entry vehicle, with diagrams in Iran's possession showing how to mold uranium metal into warhead form.
Diplomats attending closed-door IAEA presentations to board member nations have said they were shown an Iranian video depicting mock-ups of a missile re-entry vehicle that the presenter suggested seemed designed to carry a nuclear warhead.
Ahead of the next ElBaradei Iran report, one of officials interviewed for this article suggested ElBaradei was likely to heed the pressure and focus in some way on what the agency knows or surmises on Iran's alleged weapons programs.
But he declined to say what the information was, whether it would be complete and if it would be in annex form or in a report subsection.
Diplomats are also waiting to see how far ElBaradei is prepared to go in criticizing Iran's refusal to allow greater monitoring of its growing uranium enrichment program.
Since its clandestine enrichment efforts were revealed more than six years ago, Iran has steadily increased activities at its cavernous underground facility at Natanz, a city about 300 miles (500 kilometers) south of Tehran.
The June IAEA report said nearly 5,000 centrifuges were now enriching at Natanz   about 1,000 more than at the time of the last agency report, issued in February   with more than 2,000 others ready to start enriching.
Most experts estimate that the more than 1,000 kilograms   2,200 pounds   of low-enriched uranium Iran had accumulated by February was enough to produce enough weapons-grade material through further enrichment for one nuclear weapon.
And as Iran expands its operations at Natanz, its potential capacity to produce highly enriched uranium is also growing.
Iran's stonewalling of the agency on increased monitoring has raised agency concerns that its experts might not be able to make sure that some of the enriched material produced at Natanz is not diverted for potential weapons use.
We will be looking to see how strongly Elbaradei expresses these concerns in the next report, said one of the diplomats from a Western delegation.