Raise the stakes

02/05/2010
Chicago Tribune	
Original Source: http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-iran-20100205,0,7294220,full.story

President Barack Obama's self-imposed deadline for a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations with Iran is now a month past and counting.

There haven't been any breakthroughs. Iran is still charging toward the capability to build a nuclear weapon. Iranian officials are still stalling for time, issuing conflicting and confusing statements about an international deal they rejected weeks ago. (For those still keeping score, on Tuesday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared to again, belatedly, accept the deal.

As recently as the State of the Union address, Obama warned: As Iran's leaders continue to ignore their obligations, there should be no doubt: They, too, will face growing consequences. That is a promise.

There won't be any breakthroughs.

Now, about those consequences.

The Obama administration is cajoling U.N. Security Council members, holding out hope that Russia and China will sign onto tough new sanctions. That would be ideal, but it's not likely. What's likely is weeks if not months of more slow-mo diplomacy, ending with a watered-down resolution that Tehran will easily ignore.

Obama has stronger measures at his command right now. He and America's European allies can hammer Iran's economy. They can expand and toughen sanctions on Iran's Revolutionary Guards, the power behind the mullahs. When protesters demonstrated in the streets against the government's hijacking of the presidential election last year, the Guards were whistled in to crush them. The Guards wield vast power in Iran. They manage Iran's weapons manufacturing, including its missile program. They construct highways and communications systems. They invest heavily in the country's oil and gas industry. And they have a central role in building Tehran's nuclear capabilities.

That's why the U.S. needs to lead a renewed international financial assault on the Guards and Iran. Cripple Iran's banks. Dry up credit. Discourage foreigners who would invest in Iran's oil and gas industry.

The best place to start: Shut off the gasoline. Iran imports about 40 percent of its gasoline. Some of its international suppliers have already backed away, just on the threat of sanctions. But others have stepped in.

Last year, the House overwhelmingly passed a measure that empowers Obama to impose a gasoline ban on Iran. The bill directs the president to impose sanctions on any company that provides Tehran with refined petroleum resources, helps the country import gasoline or even expand its domestic refining capabilities.

Recently the Senate passed an even more sweeping measure.

The House and Senate should have no trouble blending their bills with this goal in mind: Hand the president the strongest, most explicit authority to shut off the gas and target the thugocracy that runs Iran.

In recent days, there have been reports that the administration is speeding up arms sales and upgrading missile defenses in the Persian Gulf to thwart Iranian attacks. It has set up antimissile systems in at least four Arab countries.

That's a sobering reminder of the high stakes here.

Iran is dangerously close to achieving the capability to build a weapon. The Iranian regime, despised at home, calculates the price of nuclear defiance is small compared to the benefits of jostling its way into the nuclear club.

The only way to change that calculation is to jack up the price — the economic pain — now. There's no advantage in waiting.