Disunity Threatens Iran Sanctions Plan
Harvey Morris
03/18/2010
Financial Times
Original Source: – HYPERLINK http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2010/0302/Bluster-at-UN-Human-Rights-Council-as-US-and-Iran-trade-barbs http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/710b306e-32c7-11df-a767-00144feabdc0.html

An international strategy to rein in Iran s nuclear ambitions is looking increasingly under stress as western states struggle to build a consensus for a fourth round of sanctions at the United Nations.
In spite of Tehran s refusal to take the carrot of diplomatic engagement, China and others in the UN Security Council insist it is too early to wield the sanctions stick.
Western states had hoped to secure the passage of new and tough measures at the start of the year. But officials now acknowledge that a sanctions resolution is unlikely to reach the 15-member Security Council before June, if then.
There is no deadline for action, but western states want to avoid a clash with a conference reviewing the nuclear non-proliferation treaty to be held at the UN in New York in May. Iran, a signatory to the treaty, is expected to try to make political capital out of the gathering, even without the incentive of a sanctions debate going on in the same building.
The US and its allies have circulated a draft of outline sanctions to their partners in the  P5 plus 1  –  the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany, also known as the group of six powers. Russia has noted the proposals but declined to discuss them until China responds.
 In the past, the Chinese have hidden behind the Russians on sanctions,  said one frustrated diplomat.  This time it s the other way round. The process isn t broken. It s just the usual game. 
The Chinese position is that there is still a chance for compromise with Iran, possibly involving a confidence-building swap of nuclear fuel to supply a research reactor in Tehran. The west is sceptical and diplomats continue to forecast that China will eventually come on board.
But the six have not held a face-to-face discussion since China insisted in January that more time should be given to diplomacy.
Failure to reach a consensus would undermine the P5 plus 1 as a forum for resolving the nuclear issue. According to the diplomat,  the Chinese say:  What happens if sanctions don t work?  We say:  What s the alternative?   
But China has adopted a more active stance on a range of issues at the UN and shows no sign of budging for now.
If a deal is reached among the big UN powers, it looks certain to fall short of the  crippling  measures the west had sought to convince Iran that its nuclear intransigence was not worth the economic pain.
Western diplomats acknowledge that any resolution containing watered-down measures, delivered months late by a less than unanimous vote of the Security Council, could do more harm than good when it comes to sending a message to Iran that it is confronting the will of the international community. China, which could theoretically veto any resolution, is not the only dissident. Some non-permanent members of the council, notably Brazil, Turkey and Lebanon, are also inclined to oppose further measures.
 It s extraordinarily difficult to win support for sanctions in the Security Council at the best of times,  said Carne Ross, a former UK diplomat who was involved in crafting the UN sanctions regime against Saddam Hussein s Iraq.  It s even more difficult when the state to be sanctioned hasn t committed an egregious act under international law, such as genocide. 
Mr Ross, who heads Independent Diplomat, a consultancy in New York, believes the best approach would be to present Iran with more than a take-it-or-leave-it offer on its nuclear programme and move towards addressing the country s security concerns.
 If Tehran then rejected the open hand, you would know it was not serious about reaching a settlement,  he said.
But the US is set to pass its own sanctions that would impose penalties on foreign companies doing business with Iran.