China and the Islamic Republic
Blocking U.N. sanctions is more than just a business decision

1/10/2010
Wall Street Journal
Original Source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704500104574649762717035296.html

China's Ambassador to the United Nations Zhang Yesui declared last week that it is too early for new sanctions on Iran. As China takes over the rotating presidency of the Security Council, the Obama Administration should consider why, exactly, Beijing is so reluctant to punish Tehran's refusal to make a deal over its nuclear program.

The usual answer is that China has large commercial interests in Iran, particularly in energy, and would be reluctant to impose sanctions that would put them at risk. That's true as far as it goes. 

But the Chinese leadership's deeper motivation is concern about its own power at home. The color revolutions of Eastern Europe and Central Asia have rattled Beijing, much like the collapse of the Soviet bloc 20 years ago. China's response has been to clamp down on dissent at home and seek to shore up friendly regimes abroad. A further rout of authoritarian regimes could encourage the silent majority at home who would like greater political participation.

That's a key reason China supports a rogues' gallery of states, including Sudan, Burma, Cuba and Venezuela. Some believe that the pursuit of mineral wealth drives this behavior. But consider that even as Robert Mugabe has run Zimbabwe into the ground, Beijing has continued to offer this reviled dictator diplomatic and military support. 

Support for North Korea is not only predicated on the need for a buffer state. Chinese leaders fear that the collapse of a longtime communist ally could have considerable domestic impact. We doubt this is true, but it does help to explain why China's support for tougher action against Pyongyang has been so limited.

As for Iran, Time magazine reported last week that a state-owned Chinese company has shipped armored vehicles to the Islamic Republic for use against opposition protestors. One Chinese company, LIMMT Economic & Trade Co., is also under indictment in New York for allegedly selling missile components to the Iranian military. This is hardly the behavior of a responsible world power seeking to advance the prospects of peace and stability.

China's dissidents understand the game Beijing is playing all too well. In recent days, a Twitter campaign entitled CN4Iran has been formed by Chinese who support protesters in Iran. As one said, Today we free Tehran, tomorrow we take on Beijing. This serves to fuel the paranoia of Communist Party cadres that the usual subversive elements within and outside the country are organizing to bring them down.

From the outside, such fears may seem overblown. Beijing has no problem rolling up the few dissidents who stick their head above the parapet, and the economy has not suffered the brunt of the global financial crisis, officially growing by over 8% in 2009. But regimes that lack democratic legitimacy always fear for their own survival, however powerful they may seem at any given moment. So it is with China today. 

The implication of all this for the Obama Administration is that it shouldn't wait for China to come around on sanctions, or pre-emptively water them down to meet Chinese approval at the Security Council. The better idea is to form a coalition of the willing outside the U.N. that, among other things, bars companies around the world that do business with Iran from access to Western capital markets. This is likely to get Beijing's attention in a way that more diplomatic pleading never will.